以塔中16-161井区为例,探讨了随机模拟技术在油田勘探阶段油藏描述中的应用。针对勘探阶段油藏钻井少、生产数据缺乏的实际情况,对储层随机模拟过程中出现的问题,如变异函数求取、模型的筛选等,进行了初步的分析,并提出了相应的解决方法。利用序贯高斯模拟、指示高斯模拟和模拟退火对该井区的储层参数进行了随机建模,较好地描述了储层空间分布的不确定性,发现了潜在的油藏延伸带,并给出了油气储量的可能分布,为油田的下一步勘探及油田的开发风险分析提供了依据。 Stochastic simulation and its application to reservoir characterization in the exploration stage are discussed taking 16th district of Tazhong oilfeild as an example. Several problems, such as calculation of vargiom and model selection resulted from sparse well and lack of production data, are analyzed, and resolvents are presented. Three methods of SGS, SIS and SAS are adopted to simulate reservoir parameters. The stochastic model reveals uncertainty of reservoir distribution. The potential reserves and drilling opportunities are found.